Forecast of 2022 ferrous metallurgy output in Russia

Considering the analysis of Q1 2022 performance and trends on the ferrous metallurgy market in early Q2 2022, the 2022 output of Russian ferrous metallurgy companies is expected to decrease year-on-year by more than 11 m t (-15%). The maximum decrease is expected in H2 2022, over 9 m t (-26%) vs. H2 2021.

M t	2021			2022				∆ 2022 — 2021, %
	H1	H2	year	H1	H2	∆ H2 — H1, %	year	H1 — H1	H2 — H2	year — year
	actual	actual	actual	actual	forecast	∆ H2 — H1, %	forecast	H1 — H1	H2 — H2	year — year
Flat steel, incl.:	14.3	15.1	29.4	12.9	9.8	-24%	22.6	-10%	-35%	-23%
HR steel	7.4	7.7	15.1	6.2	4.5	−27%	10.7	−17%	−42%	−29%
CR steel	2.2	2.3	4.5	2.1	1.5	−26%	3.6	−5%	−33%	−19%
Coated steel	2.2	2.3	4.5	2.0	1.8	−10%	3.8	−9%	−22%	−15%
Plate	2.5	2.8	5.3	2.6	2.0	−24%	4.5	5%	−30%	−14%
Long steel	10.2	10.3	20.5	9.8	7.7	-21%	17.5	-4%	-25%	-15%
Other rolled products	2.5	2.5	5.1	2.7	1.9	-29%	4.6	6%	-25%	-10%
Semi-finished products, incl.:	8.3	7.4	15.8	7.9	6.9	-13%	14.9	-4%	-7%	-6%
Slabs	5.3	4.9	10.3	5.2	4.3	−18%	9.6	−1%	−12%	−7%
Square billet	3.0	2.5	5.5	2.7	2.6	−6%	5.3	−9%	3%	−4%
Total	35.3	35.3	70.8	33.3	26.3	-21%	59.6	-6%	-26%	-15%

Sources: NLMK’s models and analysis by consumption industries and export markets, Rosstat, Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Federal Customs Service of Russia, Metal Expert. Output shown for commercial products (supplies).

Additional information on the forecast of metal consumption on the Russian market and the export forecast can be provided upon request.

Forecast of 2022 ferrous metallurgy output in Russia

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